A better fighter mix

Sticking with 88 F-35s gives Ottawa options

The mixed fighter fleet rumours continue to circulate in Ottawa. Sources have told SRC/CBC’s Daniel Leblanc that Ottawa is planning to move ahead with 72-88 F-35s, then potentially acquire 70+ Gripens. This is a much better plan than the 30 F-35 / 60 Gripen mix suggested in La Presse earlier, which comes with a host of sequencing problems, as I outlined last week.

Sticking with the full order of 72-88 F-35s makes sense from a capability perspective and aligns with the planned phase-out of the CF-18s in 2032. As well, it’ll give Ottawa the space to make an informed decision about the costs and benefits of acquiring Canadian-built Gripens. Indeed, Canada may decide to work with Sweden and Saab on a new variant of the Gripen or perhaps a next generation aircraft. Who knows. The point is that moving ahead with the 72-88 F-35s provides Ottawa with the breathing room it needs to make a considered, rather than rushed, decision. As I argued last November:

Where do I land on all this? To my mind, it comes down to how much money the government is willing to spend to give itself options. I think Canada should move ahead with the plan to acquire 88 F35s. We need to replace the CF-18 fleet and we’re already transition to the F35, which includes significant infrastructure investments. Moving ahead with the existing F35 buy would also give the government enough time to consider what else it might do. Next, if the government is prepared to spend a lot more money, a realistic pilot training plan could be devised by the RCAF, and Ottawa is able to get a firm commitment from Saab to establish a real Gripen production line in Canada, then a second fleet could be a worthwhile option. Should any of those conditions prove unrealistic, it may make more sense to focus on partnering with European and Indo-Pacific allies on a 6^th generation fighter, and to look at investing more in Canadian uncrewed aerospace systems and technologies.

A slower approach will help address concerns that have been raised by critics of Canada’s planned pivot away from American capabilities, too. If the current Gripen variant is blocked for sale to Canada by Washington under the American International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITARs), then Ottawa and Saab could look at the feasibility of an ITAR-free variant of the Gripen or next generation fighter. It might prove too expensive, but these ideas could be explored at a proper pace.

Critics of Canada’s potential GlobalEye acquisition have also argued that the United States will prevent that Bombardier/Saab platform from integrating into North American aerospace systems. The same could apply to a Canadian-built Gripen. The implicit argument is that the United States can compel Canada to buy American equipment by excluding European platforms from being part of an integrated defence of North America. That’s certainly possible. But it would suggest that Canada doesn’t get to decide what capabilities are operated by the CAF for continental defence. Canada, this thinking goes, has options but no choice. We have the trappings of an independent country, but we’re already the 51^st state when it comes to North American defence.

I take a less categorical view. I suspect that Canada and the United States could come to an agreement that would allow non-American capabilities to be integrated into North American defence systems. Canada would be required to set up secure, US-approved facilities to reprogram and maintain these non-American, but Canadian-built, capabilities. Firewalls would also have to be erected to prevent Europeans from having access to protected systems and data. In effect, it would fall on Canada to ensure that our non-American capabilities are trusted by the United States. It wouldn’t be easy or cheap to do, but it could be done.

Why would the United States agree to any of this when they could threaten to shut out our non-American capabilities, thereby forcing us to buy from them instead? The Trump administration may indeed decide to threaten rather than accommodate. A future American administration, however, may come to a different conclusion. If Canada brings good capabilities to the table, and integrating them ultimately bolsters North American defence, a future President may conclude that it’s in the American national interest to find acceptable workarounds. This reinforces the logic of moving forward with 72-88 F-35s, then seeing how Washington reacts to GlobalEye before making a firm decision on a mixed fighter fleet.

In closing, I have no idea what the Carney government is thinking about the fighter file. I suspect only the Prime Minister and a few folk within his office do. What I hope is that the latest rumours of 72-88 F-35s plus a possible 70+ Gripens are closer to the truth than last week’s musings about 30 F-35s and 60 Gripens. Committing to the full F-35 buy will give Ottawa a chance to seriously consider what other options it has and whether it can realistically choose to pursue them.