Trudeau the Frustrated

The Prime Minister doesn’t think he gets enough credit on defence.

Prime Minister Trudeau is frustrated. While at the NATO Summit earlier this week, Trudeau announced that Canadian defence spending would increase to 2% of GDP by 2032. This promise comes in light of mounting criticism of Canada from NATO allies. Canada is currently in the quadrant of shame, failing to meet both the GDP target and expectation that 20% of defence expenditures should be spent on capital acquisitions (i.e. new equipment). Publicly, the United States has taken a softer touch, likely because Biden administration doesn't want to do further damage to Trudeau’s re-election prospects. In private, though, Biden and his advisors have surely been telling Trudeau that they're fed up and that he needs to step up. Indeed, Trudeau’s defence record was openly criticized by Republicans in Congress during the summit, and he was having to deal with pressure from European leaders, most of whom have already laid out a plan to get their defence spending to 2%, if it isn’t there already. Suffice to say, this mustn’t have been a fun week for the PM.

Still, given that Canada hasn't met the 2% target, why would Trudeau be frustrated, as opposed to, say, contrite or shifty? The Prime Minister's comments when he announced the 2032 plan may explain his mood.

Trudeau noted that the year before he came to power, Canadian defence spending hovered around 1% of GDP, owing to his predecessor’s efforts to get back to a balanced budget. Trudeau went on to state that his government has poured billions into the armed forces, raising defence expenditures to just above 1.4 % of GDP. The government’s 2017 defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged, and its commitment to NORAD modernization, includes over $100 billion for new capabilities in the coming decades. This doesn’t include the extra $73 billion promised in the government’s April 2024 defence policy update, Our North, Strong and Free. In making these comments, Trudeau tersely point out that, in real dollars, Canada is the seventh highest defence spender in NATO. He could also have said that a good deal of new equipment has been contracted and is coming into service, slowly but surely.

Echoing a longstanding Canadian complaint, Trudeau further observed that “We’ve always questioned the 2 per cent as the be-all and end-all of evaluating contributions to NATO.” When questioned about defence spending, Canadian governments have often pointed to their tangible contributions and willingness to take on risky missions that many European allies won’t, such as the deployment to Kandahar, Afghanistan. Canada’s training of Ukrainian forces prior to the Russia invasion, and current deployment to Latvia, are examples of these efforts as well. Focusing only on defence expenditures as a percentage of GDP, Trudeau remarked, privileges a “crass mathematical calculation” over the fielding of actual forces and capabilities. Canada’s contributions to the alliance, the Prime Minister continued, should not be reduced to “some nominal targets that make for easy headlines and accounting practices but don’t actually make us automatically safer.” Doubling down, he quipped that: “yes, there may be ways where we could shift some accounting or make a little tweak here or give every Coast Guard member a handgun and say, ‘Okay, we’ve done our job.’ Would that make Canada safer? Would that make Canadians better off?”

These aren’t the words of a guy who thinks his government’s been treated fairly.  This is a man who doesn’t think his government’s efforts and accomplishments have been properly recognized.

This isn’t the first time Trudeau has sounded miffed about how his government’s record is perceived. He’s pointing to major defence investments and wondering why his government gets so little credit. Like his father before him, Trudeau’s spearheaded a once in a generation recapitalization of the Canadian Armed Forces, but nobody seems to notice or believe it.

The fact that defence isn’t his favourite file must make all this particularly irksome for Trudeau. I can imagine him chairing Cabinet meetings, where they were approving billions of new dollars for the military, and he’s sitting there silently pondering what else that money could be used for, what other priorities and social programs could be funded with such large sums.  When critics slam his government’s handling of defence, the urge to yell “What the hell, people! I bought the friggin’ F-35s, didn’t I, even though I said I wouldn’t?! What else do you want from me??” must be strong.

Is Trudeau right to be frustrated? If we look at it from his perspective, sure. But a lot of this is self-inflicted. As one reporter asked Trudeau during his press conference, why didn’t he release the 2% plan sooner? Why wait until the last day of the summit, then make a promise without any details? It comes across as slapdash and panicked, not well-thought out and determined.

The same is true of the government’s other big announcement at the summit, the launch of the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project. Not releasing a budget and timeline for the project makes the government look unprepared and feckless. That doesn’t help when you’re trying to get people to appreciate your defence successes thus far.