My feeling as well. Over this last year I’ve changed from thinking this is all just a temporary aberration, to understanding that we are never going back to the good ol’ days.
There's a Conservative narrative that vastly overstates the continuity between Carney and Trueau. A good section of Poillievre's base believes it, but I don't think many people outside the base do.
This is what infuriates me as well. That superior pontificating to readers as if we don’t understand the situation. We understand too well. Yes we’re wary of China. Yes we can never separate ourselves from the US. But anyone who thinks you can “deal” with trump has been living under a bush.
Many interpreted Carney’s speech that way. Polievre, for once, added an effective and perhaps needed counterweight. Actually contributing to the conversation as opposition leader. Contrast that to 12 months ago when he was still pedalling WEF conspiracies because that’s what his base wanted. Progress.
Agree with all, but I’d add that the neighbour also covets our land and would probably like to acquire it one day. Not only is a fence deeply needed, but a firm « hands off » message must be sent, for the good of the long term relationship.
You state "I get that a lot of Canadians don’t want to hear what Poilievre is saying. Seeing the breakdown of liberal democracy in the United States, the utter failure of its hallowed separation of powers, ICE’s brutality and violation of fundamental rights, and perhaps most jarring, the paralysis of the American political class in the face of all of this, it’s understandable that Canadians want to cut off as many ties as possible." ..."breakdown of liberal democracy in the United States" ??? What I cannot understand is why journalists, most politicians and the media in general cannot or will not use the words 'fascist regime' when describing what the American government has become. I understand we risk 'economic instability' if we piss off Trump... but really do you not think he's going to dump CUSMA anyway? The man is a narcissistic sociopath and the current path America is on is not going to change in November without a bloodbath. Do we appease the Nazi leadership in Washington?
Poillievre would be like Neville Chamberlain, wishing a signed piece of paper meant something in the face of evil. He is either hopelessly naive or he is on their side. Fascist don’t negotiate, they invade, occupy and destroy.
In dealing with the current US administration, we will need to replace allot of the economic ties that we relied on, and grow up. We are on the front lines between Russia and the US, and both see us as weak and unable to stop their ambitions.
We need to make our fences again, and unfortunately they will need tank ditches and wire obstacles with clear fields of fire. Then maybe then our neighbours will understand that this is our side of the fence, and if they don’t like it, as Frontenac told Phipps
"I have no reply to make to your general other than from the mouths of my cannons"
As well. All the comments about military or civilian resistance are a waste of breath. If the US military wants to nail us they can do so in very short order. At one point we might have had some capability to seriously resist but that would have been decades ago after politicians from various parties and citizens (most with just about zero interest or knowledge on defence) decided we needed no real defence for Canada since USA would handle same. A quick read of our security and defence ups/downs indicates that in spades.
Also, I generally support Carney even though I am a conservative. I am hoping his intelligence and experience will make this whole extended episode with the Trumpsters less painful.
I also hope PP continues to offer valuable assessments as this latest one is. It is an improvement over all of his previous inputs.
A US invasion of Canada would make Vietnam look like Girl Scout camp. Every veteran, myself included, will make Americans pay at every turn. No US soldier would be able to so much a buy a Timmies without fear of poisoning..the parade of ramp ceremonies will make for fantastic television on CNN.
You have a poor opinion of Canadian resolve. Even the Pentagon says a war with Canada would likely end in stalemate and leave both countries without viability. Our insurgency would continue for as long as it takes, fifteen years tops according to their own study.
That study did not anticipate the state of readiness that now exists. Neighbours are figuring out who will fight and how, actually discussing strategy while accumulating arms. There's no doubt we would bleed out all public support and the campaign would have to withdraw.
Ukraine wasn't ready and didn't believe the warning of what was coming. We've had 24 months, the last 12 of which we have regularly received direct threats. I don't know about your city but where I live there is enhanced awareness and active preparation. It's more of a Swiss kind of thing. We're hoping against an attack but we believe that perpetual readiness is a high form of patriotism and should never have been excluded from our ethos. It's literally in our national anthem for goodness sake. Oh Canada, we stand on guard for thee. We should all have essential training and a weapon or ready access to a cache.
Guerrillas learn quick. There are countless examples from history. Can you imagine the size of the force required to hold all of Canada. It's vast and extremely inhospitable. Military doctrine states you need 25 soldiers per 1000 people. That's over a million soldiers. The US doesn't have three forces and they certainly don't have thr belly for the losses they'd incur. And, as always, the more losses, the more they'd try to suppress the population. The more they so that the stronger the insurgency. They can't win in Canada
You didn’t answer the question. I know exactly what it will take to stop the Yanks. But it is far more complicated than you can imagine. As well the vast majority of Yanks will be dead set against such a move.
You think Canadians don’t know that? Good grief! Of course the US could take us. Not easily, but sure. I don’t believe however, they could keep us. We would be the worst sort of conquered people.
Military doctrine is 25 soldiers for every 1000 people. That's over a million US soldiers required to hold Canada. They don't have a million soldiers for that task. You are entirely correct. They could take us but they could never hold us
Thank you for this perspective. There will always be a continued relationship with the US. I have faith PM Carney will achieve the best possible outcomes for Canada. There are two remote options: the first being changes in plate tectonics to separate the two countries and; cutting along the 49th parallel with a reciprocating saw but the blades are not long enough.
Well said. I’d add something else, there is opportunity for Canada in this chaos. They have unsustainable debt, let’s get ours in order. They have a divided citizenry, let’s unite ours. They be come unreliable trade partners, let’s emphasize our reliability.
American money funded The Freedom Convoy. Canada's Supreme Court, strangely, upheld that group's "right" to disrupt Ottawa. Alberta is voting on separation. Saskatchewan's Moe muses about the province being "a nation within a nation". Treason, in my view. Late, overdue, and finally!! Canadians are enabling free trade within our nation. I seriously think that American money in Canada's news.(eg. The Rebel) and politics must be smashed. Importantly, Canada needs a national kindergarten to grade 12, mandatory bilingual French and English, heavy on trades and computer mastery, Education System. No more indoctrination regarding religion or local politics. The Commonwealth has been overlooked. Canadians have vacationed in Cuba. Let's expand to the Caribbean, Belize, and Guyana. Thank you for reading.
I believe the current government has been continuing “to work with allies within the U.S. that are outside of the administration to minimize the damage”. For example, the interaction and cooperation among the senior levels of the US and Canadian militaries has been ongoing for many decades now and is probably one of the best safeguards against an American invasion.
I'm not sure Poilievre is delivering a 'reality check' if he's saying that Trump and Trumpism is an aberration that we can get through by working with allies in the US. We've had trade with the US as long as we've been a country. But, for much of that time, relationships have not been particularly friendly. Perhaps the postwar period has been the aberration and now we're back to 'the usual'. I see no evidence Poilievre understands that. So, rather than a 'corrective', it may be a fatal misunderstanding.
Agreed. Trump is just a symptom. Behind him are Vance, Miller, Noem and the whole fascist gang, supported by half the electorate. Until the MAGA cancer is cut out of the American body politic, and the socioeconomic conditions that gave rise to it are fixed, the US will never be a reliable ally.
Carney’s speech was about making allies - and Canadians - wake up and recognize that the old order is gone and that the USA is now a semi-hostile power: that there will be no going back to a world where the US is a reliable partner.
This was and is necessary because of the amount of denialism that still persists. In Canada, this is especially prevalent in the business community, which seems to want CUSMA irrespective of whether Trump demands concessions that leave Canada a permanent vassal state.
So Carney’s message is best understood as *compensatory.* People still keep fooling themselves that, if we just kowtow, we’ll get back to normal. We won’t.
That’s the reality. But I don’t think anyone believes that Canada will stop doing business in a multitude of ways with the USA. This supposed belief is a red herring.
Who’s talking about severing ties? Nobody serious. Serious people are talking about diversification and decoupling. They’re talking about lessening - as much as is possible - our dependence on the US. Nobody who should be taken seriously is suggesting we completely sever ties. This is a statement about a line of policy that isn’t happening.
As far as military enmeshment and intelligence concerned, geography goes the other way. Canada is far away from any potential enemy except for the US itself, and, more pertinently, in the Arctic. And here Carney is exactly right. The US, China and Russia all want the Arctic, not because it's super-valuable, but because that's what great powers do. Canada and Europe need to resist them, as Carney said.
And that means accepting that "sharing intelligence" means sharing it with a potential enemy. Fortunately, Trump will probably cut Canada off anyway, which might shake some of the Canadain military establishment out of their assumption that things will go on as normal.
We should place additional emphasis on what Canada’s done for the USA and what we consider to be their unfair practices. At the moment we’re giving them too much space to drive the narrative in the direction they want.
My feeling as well. Over this last year I’ve changed from thinking this is all just a temporary aberration, to understanding that we are never going back to the good ol’ days.
There's a Conservative narrative that vastly overstates the continuity between Carney and Trueau. A good section of Poillievre's base believes it, but I don't think many people outside the base do.
This is what infuriates me as well. That superior pontificating to readers as if we don’t understand the situation. We understand too well. Yes we’re wary of China. Yes we can never separate ourselves from the US. But anyone who thinks you can “deal” with trump has been living under a bush.
I’m convinced there is quite a developing hydra of influencers insinuating themselves into the conversation.
The continuity is in his Cabinet
PP has used straw men before. This seems like another instance of that.
💯
Many interpreted Carney’s speech that way. Polievre, for once, added an effective and perhaps needed counterweight. Actually contributing to the conversation as opposition leader. Contrast that to 12 months ago when he was still pedalling WEF conspiracies because that’s what his base wanted. Progress.
“PP’s old trick of pointing out what wasn’t said as if it were.” You nailed that.
Exactly. Poilievre has tried on different acts before, but he always reverts back to his worn comfortable hate/fear mongering.
Cons are cons are Cons
Conservatives are driven by fear.
Almost all of their messaging is fear mongering.
Agree with all, but I’d add that the neighbour also covets our land and would probably like to acquire it one day. Not only is a fence deeply needed, but a firm « hands off » message must be sent, for the good of the long term relationship.
You state "I get that a lot of Canadians don’t want to hear what Poilievre is saying. Seeing the breakdown of liberal democracy in the United States, the utter failure of its hallowed separation of powers, ICE’s brutality and violation of fundamental rights, and perhaps most jarring, the paralysis of the American political class in the face of all of this, it’s understandable that Canadians want to cut off as many ties as possible." ..."breakdown of liberal democracy in the United States" ??? What I cannot understand is why journalists, most politicians and the media in general cannot or will not use the words 'fascist regime' when describing what the American government has become. I understand we risk 'economic instability' if we piss off Trump... but really do you not think he's going to dump CUSMA anyway? The man is a narcissistic sociopath and the current path America is on is not going to change in November without a bloodbath. Do we appease the Nazi leadership in Washington?
Bingo. The bare truth.
Poillievre would be like Neville Chamberlain, wishing a signed piece of paper meant something in the face of evil. He is either hopelessly naive or he is on their side. Fascist don’t negotiate, they invade, occupy and destroy.
In dealing with the current US administration, we will need to replace allot of the economic ties that we relied on, and grow up. We are on the front lines between Russia and the US, and both see us as weak and unable to stop their ambitions.
We need to make our fences again, and unfortunately they will need tank ditches and wire obstacles with clear fields of fire. Then maybe then our neighbours will understand that this is our side of the fence, and if they don’t like it, as Frontenac told Phipps
"I have no reply to make to your general other than from the mouths of my cannons"
Yes you nailed it.
As well. All the comments about military or civilian resistance are a waste of breath. If the US military wants to nail us they can do so in very short order. At one point we might have had some capability to seriously resist but that would have been decades ago after politicians from various parties and citizens (most with just about zero interest or knowledge on defence) decided we needed no real defence for Canada since USA would handle same. A quick read of our security and defence ups/downs indicates that in spades.
Also, I generally support Carney even though I am a conservative. I am hoping his intelligence and experience will make this whole extended episode with the Trumpsters less painful.
I also hope PP continues to offer valuable assessments as this latest one is. It is an improvement over all of his previous inputs.
A US invasion of Canada would make Vietnam look like Girl Scout camp. Every veteran, myself included, will make Americans pay at every turn. No US soldier would be able to so much a buy a Timmies without fear of poisoning..the parade of ramp ceremonies will make for fantastic television on CNN.
Yep. And then there's General Winter.
You have a poor opinion of Canadian resolve. Even the Pentagon says a war with Canada would likely end in stalemate and leave both countries without viability. Our insurgency would continue for as long as it takes, fifteen years tops according to their own study.
That study did not anticipate the state of readiness that now exists. Neighbours are figuring out who will fight and how, actually discussing strategy while accumulating arms. There's no doubt we would bleed out all public support and the campaign would have to withdraw.
Ukraine wasn't ready and didn't believe the warning of what was coming. We've had 24 months, the last 12 of which we have regularly received direct threats. I don't know about your city but where I live there is enhanced awareness and active preparation. It's more of a Swiss kind of thing. We're hoping against an attack but we believe that perpetual readiness is a high form of patriotism and should never have been excluded from our ethos. It's literally in our national anthem for goodness sake. Oh Canada, we stand on guard for thee. We should all have essential training and a weapon or ready access to a cache.
I'm 56 and have no military experience. If I were offered basic training for a civil defence force I'd jump at it.
Who is “we?” What neighbours? What training do you have? Your neighbours?
Guerrillas learn quick. There are countless examples from history. Can you imagine the size of the force required to hold all of Canada. It's vast and extremely inhospitable. Military doctrine states you need 25 soldiers per 1000 people. That's over a million soldiers. The US doesn't have three forces and they certainly don't have thr belly for the losses they'd incur. And, as always, the more losses, the more they'd try to suppress the population. The more they so that the stronger the insurgency. They can't win in Canada
You didn’t answer the question. I know exactly what it will take to stop the Yanks. But it is far more complicated than you can imagine. As well the vast majority of Yanks will be dead set against such a move.
What question did I not answer?
Who is “we?” What neighbours? What training do you have? Your neighbours?
You think Canadians don’t know that? Good grief! Of course the US could take us. Not easily, but sure. I don’t believe however, they could keep us. We would be the worst sort of conquered people.
Military doctrine is 25 soldiers for every 1000 people. That's over a million US soldiers required to hold Canada. They don't have a million soldiers for that task. You are entirely correct. They could take us but they could never hold us
Understood. Do you think modern war is about manpower though?
Thank you for this perspective. There will always be a continued relationship with the US. I have faith PM Carney will achieve the best possible outcomes for Canada. There are two remote options: the first being changes in plate tectonics to separate the two countries and; cutting along the 49th parallel with a reciprocating saw but the blades are not long enough.
It’s interesting to juxtapose Australia’s relationship with China.
Much more obvious that there is a limit to the integration/assimilation that’s desirable for Australians but something has to pay the bills.
Well said. I’d add something else, there is opportunity for Canada in this chaos. They have unsustainable debt, let’s get ours in order. They have a divided citizenry, let’s unite ours. They be come unreliable trade partners, let’s emphasize our reliability.
American money funded The Freedom Convoy. Canada's Supreme Court, strangely, upheld that group's "right" to disrupt Ottawa. Alberta is voting on separation. Saskatchewan's Moe muses about the province being "a nation within a nation". Treason, in my view. Late, overdue, and finally!! Canadians are enabling free trade within our nation. I seriously think that American money in Canada's news.(eg. The Rebel) and politics must be smashed. Importantly, Canada needs a national kindergarten to grade 12, mandatory bilingual French and English, heavy on trades and computer mastery, Education System. No more indoctrination regarding religion or local politics. The Commonwealth has been overlooked. Canadians have vacationed in Cuba. Let's expand to the Caribbean, Belize, and Guyana. Thank you for reading.
Yes, it's true that we have had trade with the US as long as our countries have
I believe the current government has been continuing “to work with allies within the U.S. that are outside of the administration to minimize the damage”. For example, the interaction and cooperation among the senior levels of the US and Canadian militaries has been ongoing for many decades now and is probably one of the best safeguards against an American invasion.
I'm not sure Poilievre is delivering a 'reality check' if he's saying that Trump and Trumpism is an aberration that we can get through by working with allies in the US. We've had trade with the US as long as we've been a country. But, for much of that time, relationships have not been particularly friendly. Perhaps the postwar period has been the aberration and now we're back to 'the usual'. I see no evidence Poilievre understands that. So, rather than a 'corrective', it may be a fatal misunderstanding.
Agreed. Trump is just a symptom. Behind him are Vance, Miller, Noem and the whole fascist gang, supported by half the electorate. Until the MAGA cancer is cut out of the American body politic, and the socioeconomic conditions that gave rise to it are fixed, the US will never be a reliable ally.
Carney’s speech was about making allies - and Canadians - wake up and recognize that the old order is gone and that the USA is now a semi-hostile power: that there will be no going back to a world where the US is a reliable partner.
This was and is necessary because of the amount of denialism that still persists. In Canada, this is especially prevalent in the business community, which seems to want CUSMA irrespective of whether Trump demands concessions that leave Canada a permanent vassal state.
So Carney’s message is best understood as *compensatory.* People still keep fooling themselves that, if we just kowtow, we’ll get back to normal. We won’t.
That’s the reality. But I don’t think anyone believes that Canada will stop doing business in a multitude of ways with the USA. This supposed belief is a red herring.
Who’s talking about severing ties? Nobody serious. Serious people are talking about diversification and decoupling. They’re talking about lessening - as much as is possible - our dependence on the US. Nobody who should be taken seriously is suggesting we completely sever ties. This is a statement about a line of policy that isn’t happening.
As far as military enmeshment and intelligence concerned, geography goes the other way. Canada is far away from any potential enemy except for the US itself, and, more pertinently, in the Arctic. And here Carney is exactly right. The US, China and Russia all want the Arctic, not because it's super-valuable, but because that's what great powers do. Canada and Europe need to resist them, as Carney said.
And that means accepting that "sharing intelligence" means sharing it with a potential enemy. Fortunately, Trump will probably cut Canada off anyway, which might shake some of the Canadain military establishment out of their assumption that things will go on as normal.
We should place additional emphasis on what Canada’s done for the USA and what we consider to be their unfair practices. At the moment we’re giving them too much space to drive the narrative in the direction they want.