Conservative voters want more defence spending. Will they get it?
Canadians appear to be more supportive of increased defence spending than in the past. Recent polling from Angus Reid indicates that defence is now a top foreign policy priority for more than a fourth of the population. What can we make of this?
On the one hand, this polling data isn't all that surprising. There's a war in Europe, the threat posed by China is palpable, and the prospect of a second Trump presidency has Canadians rightly worried about what will happen if we don't increase our military expenditures. Defence concerns have also been building for a while. Canadians know their Arctic is vulnerable. They've been reminded regularly that the military is struggling with older equipment and that the CAF is facing a serious personnel shortfall. And, perhaps most importantly, the world kinda feels like it’s falling apart, and the future looks pretty bleak. In these circumstances, it's not surprising that more Canadians want to invest in the CAF.
The uptick in support for defence spending is largely driven by likely Conservative voters. Whereas 71% of Conservative voters want to see Canada spend at least two percent of GDP on defence, only 50% of Liberal voters do. Likewise, while 45% of Conservative voters think that military preparedness should be a top foreign policy priority, only 24% of Liberals feel the same.
Should we expect a firmer commitment to higher defence spending from the Conservatives in light of this polling? We might, but I suspect the Conservatives are approaching these results with caution for a few reasons.
First, while more Conservative voters than Liberal voters see defence as their top foreign policy priority, it's still hovering at about 45%, compared with 47% for trade in terms of Conservative voter priorities for foreign policy. Second, there will be doubts that Conservatives voters will be willing to accept the trade offs associated with additional defence money, such as cuts to other programs, higher taxes, or still more debt. It would be useful to see how this Conservative support for defence spending compares with balancing the budget and lowering taxes, as a result. Thirdly, it's unclear if this support for higher defence spending will last. Considering how low of a priority defence has been in the past, the current level of support may be temporary, even among Conservatives. Of note, when Angus Reid polled about these questions in 2015, only 18% of Conservative voters said that defence was their top foreign policy priority.
Although the recent Angus Reid results indicate that a potential Trump presidency is one factor behind this support for higher defence spending among voters, it’ll likely be the biggest factor for both the Liberal government and the Conservatives. If Trump wins the presidency and makes good on his threats to those NATO allies who aren’t spending two percent of GDP on defence, both the Liberals and the Conservatives may make hitting that target a core part of their electoral platforms. When Canadians realize that their prosperity and standard of living are dependent on higher defence spending, support for military expenditure as Canadians’ top foreign policy priority should get well above 29%.