Blair the Bold

Canada’s defence minister has been pretty blunt about the military and his Cabinet colleagues.

Bill Blair has been a surprising defence minister. If, as rumour has it, Anita Anand was shuffled out of the defence portfolio because she was being too forceful, then one would assume that the Prime Minister's Office was expecting Blair to be more docile. It hasn’t worked out that way.

Instead, Blair has been one of our blunter defence ministers. He's been quite frank about the state of the military and his Cabinet colleagues. I keep expecting him to be reined in by PMO, but it either hasn’t happened or he’s brushed it off.

We have three recent examples of Blair's boldness. The first was his speech to the Ottawa Conference on Security & Defence. As part of that speech, Blair told the CAF that their approach to recruitment and retention was locking them into a death spiral. A death spiral, people.  Aside from sexual misconduct, defence ministers usually highlight what the defence department and military are doing right. Since the government is responsible for how the military is fairing, defence ministers like to put a positive spin on things. Blair didn’t do that. He openly criticized the CAF and warned them of where things are headed absent major change.

Defence spending is another example. After Our North, Strong and Free was released, critics lamented that the government was failing to reach the 2% of GDP target. At first, Blair did what defence ministers normally do. He emphasized the positives, pointing to the new investments that were being made. A few weeks later, though, Blair the Bold came out again. He told a CGAI conference that his Cabinet colleagues were resistant to meeting the 2% target. In his words, they see it as a 'magical threshold'. As Blair noted: “Don’t get me wrong. It’s important, but it was really hard convincing people that that was a worthy goal, that that was some noble standard that we had to meet.”

Blair's comments could be interpreted in different ways, but it sure sounded like he was saying that his colleagues don't appreciate the seriousness of the current threat environment or Canada’s alliance obligations. The comment is equally notable if we interpret it the other way. If Blair is telling pundits that 2% is just a number and one factor among many that has to be taken into account when budgeting for the military, it's equally blunt. However we read it, his comment is noteworthy.

The 2% target came up again when Blair commented on submarines. He mused that a replacement for Canada's four Victoria class submarines was 'inevitable' and that the cost of this program would lift the defence budget to 2% of GDP. This may seem like a fairly obvious and anodyne point. But it's rare for a defence minister to speak this way. Not only did he imply that Cabinet would eventually need to make a decision it's deferred, but he admitted that new boats would cost Canadians a boatload of money.

What explains Blair's boldness? Part of it may be the job itself. Being defence minister these days involves having your elbows up, since it’s a portfolio where you have to fight other ministers to get the money required to meet Cabinet's own policy objectives. Blair might also see defence as his swan song. Sure, the Liberals may defy the odds and cling to power after the next election, but it looks increasingly unlikely. Even if they do, there's no guarantee that the same ministers would be in Cabinet.

Regardless of the reasons behind it, Blair’s bluntness is refreshing, and a reminder of what Cabinet government can look like when ministers refuse to parrot canned lines and talking points from the centre.